President Donald J. Trump in The Situation Room, June 21, 2025 [photo credit: US Gov]
Besides serving the political imperatives of Netanyahu, Trump’s
bombing, which disregarded his own intelligence services, ran contrary
to what he had promised on the campaign trail, and put American
personnel and assets at risk, was also about saving Trump’s own face
after he had impetuously aligned himself with Israel’s tactically
brilliant but strategically disastrous surprise attack on June 13th.
After assassinating top military leaders, nuclear scientists, and
politicians, striking nuclear and military facilities, and destroying
Iran's air defences, Netanyahu, it turned out, had no capacity to finish
what he had started. Iran quickly recovered and within hours was
sending wave after wave of airstrikes into Tel Aviv and other
metropolitan areas. In an unthinkable turnaround, many highly sensitive
strategic targets have been hit, including Israel’s military
intelligence headquarters, Tel Nof Airbase, Nevatim Airbase, Ovda
Airbase and the Rafael Defence Facility, to name just a few. When Iran
refused to yield to the President’s threats and demands for
unconditional surrender he had no choice but to deliver on his threats.
Now the dogs of war have been unleashed, no one can predict what will
happen next. There is no sign of a ceasefire or even peace talks. Iran
and Israel both view the conflict fundamentally as an existential
struggle. From Tehran's perspective, the Israeli campaign extends beyond
the stated objective of neutralising its nuclear program to dismantling
the regime itself and stopping the war would only invite being bombed
on Israel’s whim, like Lebanon or Gaza. For Israel, Iran's retaliatory
missile campaign is viewed as a direct threat to its own existence.
Within hours of Donald Trump declaring Israel to be much safer thanks to
his bombing the twentieth wave of Iranian missiles rained down on Tel
Aviv and Haifa.
One glimmer of hope is that as no regional US military assets appear
to have been used in the strike, Iranian retaliation against US
personnel may be inhibited, preventing further escalation. Expanding the
conflict to other fronts would mean Iran would risk provoking more US
strikes and dilute its current military effectiveness in the next
crucial stage in the war. At the same time, by bombing empty targets
Trump has created a potential window of opportunity for the US to
disengage.
Even if Iran and its allies take no direct action against the US in retaliation, despite public statements to the contrary,
there are plenty of other ways they can respond. Iran is surrounded by
high-value targets with the potential to inflict enormous economic,
political, and security damage on the US. This is why all previous US
presidents had avoided using force to destroy the Iranian nuclear
program.
The US strikes were a grave violation of the United Nations Charter
and all established principles of international law, as well as the
treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and the
Constitutional provision that Congress alone has the power to declare
war. The attack was initiated by two states possessing thousands of
nuclear weapons of their own, without any verifiable evidence from
international inspection bodies regarding a military nuclear program.
The situation evokes the catastrophic war in Iraq, which was also
predicated on deception and contradicted by reports from international
inspection bodies confirming the absence of weapons of mass destruction.
A similar war against Iran would undoubtedly unleash devastating
consequences on the region and its populace. It will perpetuate the
pattern, as observed in the Iraq war and the ongoing genocide in Gaza,
in which regional states are relegated to the role of passive observers
and it will consolidate the United States’ ignominious status as a
despised pariah internationally and an autocratic nation at home. The
lesson for any other would-be US adversary is clear: nuclear weapons are
the only security guarantor so develop a bomb fast, just do it in
secret like Pakistan and North Korea.
At the end of Moby-Dick Ahab and almost all of his crew perish due to his consuming obsession. The Pequod is destroyed, swallowed by the sea and Moby Dick survives, having successfully thwarted Ahab's vengeful quest.
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